Multivariate Hierarchical Frameworks for Modelling Delayed Reporting in Count Data

In many fields and applications count data can be subject to delayed reporting. This is where the total count, such as the number of disease cases contracted in a given week, may not be immediately available, instead arriving in parts over time. For short term decision making, the statistical challenge lies in predicting the total count based on any observed partial counts, along with a robust quantification of uncertainty. In this article we discuss previous approaches to modelling delayed reporting and present a multivariate hierarchical framework where the count generating process and delay mechanism are modelled simultaneously. Unlike other approaches, the framework can also be easily adapted to allow for the presence of under-reporting in the final observed count. To compare our approach with existing frameworks, one of which we extend to potentially improve predictive performance, we present a case study of reported dengue fever cases in Rio de Janeiro. Based on both within-sample and out-of-sample posterior predictive model checking and arguments of interpretability, adaptability, and computational efficiency, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each modelling framework.Comment: Biometrics (2019

1998 Dairy Situation and Outlook

Livestock Production/Industries,

Mergers and Business Model Assimilation: Evidence from Low-Cost Airlines Takeovers

This paper examines mergers that lead to an almost immediate replacement of the target firm’s business model in favor of that of the acquiring firm. We examine the post-merger behavior of the two leading European dedicated low-cost airlines, EasyJet and Ryanair, each acquiring another low-cost airline, respectively Go Fly and Buzz. We find that both takeovers had an immediate and sustained impact on both the pricing structures and the extent of inter-temporal price schedules used on the acquired routes, with early booking fares noticeably reduced and only very late booking fares increased. The analysis suggests that the takeovers had a net beneficial effect as a consequence of the introduction of the acquiring firms’ business models and associated yield management pricing systems. .merger policy; Business model; Low-cost airline; Price discrimination; Yield management .

Liquid cooling of non-uniform heat flux of chip circuit by submicrochannels

Sumbmicrochannels have been placed on the hotspots in a non-uniform heat generated chip circuit to increase the liquid/solid interaction area and then to enhance the heat dissipation. Main microchannels width is 185µm, which is twice the width of the submicrochannels and also includes the wall thickness of 35µm, and wall height is 500µm. The chip dimension is 10mm×10mm and the hotspot is 4mm×10m. Different positions of the hotspot have been investigated e.g. upstream, middle and downstream. Uniform heat flux is 100W/cm2 while for the hot spot is 150 W/cm2. Single channel simulation reveals that the downstream hotspot gives a lower temperature of the chip circuit surface; however the upstream hotspot has more uniform temperature distribution. A special design of manifold was adopted to ensure an equal mass distribution through the microchannels

New insights into the biomechanics of Legg-Calvé-Perthes’ disease: The role of epiphyseal skeletal immaturity in vascular obstruction

ObjectivesLegg–Calvé–Perthes’ disease (LCP) is an idiopathic osteonecrosis of the femoral head that is most common in children between four and eight years old. The factors that lead to the onset of LCP are still unclear; however, it is believed that interruption of the blood supply to the developing epiphysis is an important factor in the development of the condition.MethodsFinite element analysis modelling of the blood supply to the juvenile epiphysis was investigated to understand under which circumstances the blood vessels supplying the femoral epiphysis could become obstructed. The identification of these conditions is likely to be important in understanding the biomechanics of LCP.ResultsThe results support the hypothesis that vascular obstruction to the epiphysis may arise when there is delayed ossification and when articular cartilage has reduced stiffness under compression.ConclusionThe findings support the theory of vascular occlusion as being important in the pathophysiology of Perthes disease

Collisionless hydrodynamics for 1D motion of inhomogeneous degenerate electron gases: equivalence of two recent descriptions

Recently I. Tokatly and O. Pankratov (''TP'', Phys. Rev. B 60, 15550 (1999)) used velocity moments of a semiclassical kinetic equation to derive a hydrodynamic description of electron motion in a degenerate electron gas. Independently, the present authors (Theochem 501-502, 327 (2000)) used considerations arising from the Harmonic Potential Theorem (Phys. Rev. Lett. 73, 2244 (1994)) to generate a new form of high-frequency hydrodynamics for inhomogeneous degenerate electron gases (HPT-N3 hydrodynamics). We show here that TP hydrodynamics yields HPT-N3 hydrodynamics when linearized about a Thomas-Fermi groundstate with one-dimensional spatial inhomnogeneity.Comment: 17p

The effect of boundary constraints on finite element modelling of the human pelvis

The use of finite element analysis (FEA) to investigate the biomechanics of anatomical systems critically relies on the specification of physiologically representative boundary conditions. The biomechanics of the pelvis has been the specific focus of a number of FEA studies previously, but it is also a key aspect in other investigations of, for example, the hip joint or new design of hip prostheses. In those studies, the pelvis has been modelled in a number of ways with a variety of boundary conditions, ranging from a model of the whole pelvic girdle including soft tissue attachments to a model of an isolated hemi-pelvis. The current study constructed a series of FEA models of the same human pelvis to investigate the sensitivity of the predicted stress distributions to the type of boundary conditions applied, in particular to represent the sacro-iliac joint and pubic symphysis. Varying the method of modelling the sacro-iliac joint did not produce significant variations in the stress distribution, however changes to the modelling of the pubic symphysis were observed to have a greater effect on the results. Over-constraint of the symphysis prevented the bending of the pelvis about the greater sciatic notch, and underestimated high stresses within the ilium. However, permitting medio-lateral translation to mimic widening of the pelvis addressed this problem. These findings underline the importance of applying the appropriate boundary conditions to FEA models, and provide guidance on suitable methods of constraining the pelvis when, for example, scan data has not captured the full pelvic girdle. The results also suggest a valid method for performing hemi-pelvic modelling of cadaveric or archaeological remains which are either damaged or incomplete

Control of crystal polymorph in microfluidics using molluscan 28 kDa Ca2+-binding protein

Biominerals produced by biological systems in physiologically relevant environments possess extraordinary properties that are often difficult to replicate under laboratory conditions. Understanding the mechanism that underlies the process of biomineralisation can lead to novel strategies in the development of advanced materials. Using microfluidics, we have demonstrated for the first time, that an extrapallial (EP) 28 kDa protein, located in the extrapallial compartment between mantle and shell of Mytilus edulis, can influence, at both micro- and nanoscopic levels, the morphology, structure and polymorph that is laid down in the shell ultrastructure. Crucially, this influence is predominantly dependent on the existence of an EP protein concentration gradient and its consecutive interaction with Ca2+ ions. Novel lemon-shaped hollow vaterite structures with a clearly defined nanogranular assembly occur only where particular EP protein and Ca2+ gradients co-exist. Computational fluid dynamics enabled the progress of the reaction to be mapped and the influence of concentration gradients across the device to be calculated. Importantly, these findings could not have been observed using conventional bulk mixing methods. Our findings not only provide direct experimental evidence of the potential influence of EP proteins in crystal formation, but also offer a new biomimetic strategy to develop functional biomaterials for applications such as encapsulation and drug delivery

High-Level Correlated Approach to the Jellium Surface Energy, Without Uniform-Electron-Gas Input

We resolve the long-standing controversy over the surface energy of simple metals: Density functional methods that require uniform-electron-gas input agree with each other at many levels of sophistication, but not with high-level correlated calculations like Fermi Hypernetted Chain and Diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) that predict the uniform-gas correlation energy. Here we apply a very high-level correlated approach, the inhomogeneous Singwi-Tosi-Land-Sj\"olander (ISTLS) method, and find that the density functionals are indeed reliable (because the surface energy is "bulk-like"). ISTLS values are close to recently-revised DMC values. Our work also vindicates the previously-disputed use of uniform-gas-based nonlocal kernels in time-dependent density functional theory.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur